Monday, November 5, 2012

2012 Presidential Election Results Prediction. Romney 52 - Obama 47



I don’t want to be timid.  I want to test my political acumen by offering a prediction on the 2012 Presidential race between Barrak Obama and Mitt Romney.  I’m going to say that tomorrow will be a landslide victory for Romney, or let me put it more accurately, a landslide victory against Obama.   I offer this opinion for posterity for my kids and for a few of my friends (Kansasbob).  Here are the reasons why

1.      Signage: I know it isn’t scientific, but there is a total lack of enthusiasm for Obama.  I don’t see many signs out at all.  Even though Missouri didn’t go for Obama in 2008, there was still enthusiasm.  That could be a sign of a lack of interest in signs altogether, but I think not.  Similarly, there is a lack of signage for Romney.  I think, as is in my case, that this is due to this election cycle being more about Obama losing than it is about Romney winning.
2.      Enthusiasm in 2010:  There was a major swing in enthusiasm against the Obama policies and a lack of enthusiasm for them.  I don’t think this has changed in 2 years.
3.      The Debates:  Every election, we see the republican candidate look like a stunned deer as a democrat suavester woo’s the media.  This time the media was shocked as their own candidate was the stunned one, and when he tried to rebound in later debates, it was too aggressive too late.   For all those sitting on the fence.  Romney needed only to ease their fears that the way the media portrayed him wasn’t accurate.  Once that was done, it didn’t matter what happened in the other two debates, the independents were flipped to Romney.
4.      You can cover up, by you can’t hide:  In 2008, few people knew who Obama really was.  They could make him whatever they wanted.  After 4 years of policy under his belt, the best efforts of the media could no longer hide who Obama really is.  Obama is an angry man that view America with contempt.  He views elections as a method of getting “revenge” on those that disagree with him.
5.      The Polls:  I just read a story about how the USS Enterprise is being retired because after 50 years of service, there just aren’t enough parts to keep her operable.  Similarly, the method of polling has now become out of date.  Fewer and fewer people have a listed, non-robo call blocked, home phone.   I am one of those people.  What demographic maintains home phones and how does that affect polling.  Additionally, the polls themselves are so controversial that their reliability is now being discounted wholesale.

This is my prediction and I stand by it.   Then again, I predicted Obama would lose in 2008, although not the day before the election, more like the year before the election.  I knew he would win come the day before.

2 comments:

Kansas Bob said...

George Will predicts the electoral college will be Romney: 321 Obama: 217.

My prediction:

If it is close Obama takes it.

If not close then Romney wins.

jrchaard said...

A lot of these people don't like to be wrong. It seems like more and more are breaking Romney's way